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Study Wrongly Predicts Georgia’s Future Water Use

July 19th, 2013

The Atlanta office of the national consulting firm Burns & McDonnell this week issued a dire prediction: By 2020, Georgia’s water consumption would double.

For metro Atlanta, the picture was far worse. To hear the audio version of this story as aired on Friday's All Things Considered, click the 'Listen' icon above.

According to “The Big Gulp: Georgia’s Water Challenge,” demand in the Atlanta region would increase 900% in just seven years.

“My first reaction was to study [the findings] further,” said Katherine Zitsch, head of the Atlanta Regional Commission’s Natural Resources Division. “But then as we looked into them, we noticed there were things that didn’t match the forecast that we were projecting through that same time.”

The Atlanta Regional Commission also had looked extensively into future water usage, both in metro Atlanta and state-wide.

But unlike Burns & McDonnell, ARC researchers expected consumption to increase by just 10-20%.

So why the difference?

It appears the Burns & McDonnell study considered data from one online source, and among other concerns, looked only at water withdraw rates.

Zitch says that’s only half the picture.

“Any discussion about water supply and water use has to be a total discussion that also includes water that is returned into the streams and lakes that we are using,” she said.

Burns & McDonnell declined WABE’s interview request.

Instead, spokeswoman Jenny Schmitt said in an Email Friday afternoon that the two studies used different data sources, “and as with any kind of projections, differences do occur.”

She also said the Atlanta Regional Commission should be allowed to “tell their story on water.”

Within an hour of that Email, Schmitt followed up with the following retraction.

An infographic and press release issued by Burns & McDonnell-Southeast on Monday, July 15, were factually incorrect.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, water withdrawals throughout the state were estimated at 5.5 billion gallons per day in 2005. Since 2006, total water usage throughout the state has declined by varying percentages, notably including reductions of about 15 percent in Metro Atlanta, thanks to water conservation measures championed and implemented by the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), the Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District, the State of Georgia Environmental Protection Division, Georgia water systems and their customers.

We regret the error and apologize to the Atlanta Regional Commission, the Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District and the Georgia Environmental Protection Division for any confusion we have caused.

The Atlanta Regional Commission’s Zitch said the retraction was important because it “set the record straight” on the area’s future water outlook.