A simmering conflict on Russia’s volatile southern border is threatening to escalate into an all-out war, with the potential of drawing in NATO ally Turkey.
Fighting continued for a second day in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, claimed by Armenians as well as by Azerbaijanis. Dozens of service members on both sides have been reported killed in a flare-up of violence that began Sunday morning. The ethnic Armenian majority in the region fought a bloody war of secession from Azerbaijan as the Soviet Union fell apart three decades ago. A tense cease-fire — but no lasting peace — has since kept tensions high in the Caucasus, an area where Russia, Turkey and Iran have historically competed.
“The attack was coming. There were numerous signals, all saw them and did nothing for weeks,” Olesya Vartanyan, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, tweeted. “There was a need for a pro-active international mediation. Many found reasons to OK this attack. If they stay silent now, expect a real war.”
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