Trump carries the stain of conviction like a crown. Will the verdict matter to voters?

Former President Donald Trump departs after speaking at a news conference at Trump Tower, Friday, May 31, 2024, in New York. A day after a New York jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony charges, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee addressed the conviction and likely attempt to cast his campaign in a new light. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)

The bravado behind Donald Trump’ s boastful hypothesis in 2016 — “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters” — is headed for a real-world reckoning.

Until now, at least, he’s been uncannily right. Through his two impeachments, his desperate agitations to stay in power after losing the last election and the far-ranging series of criminal charges against him from Florida to Georgia to Washington to New York, Trump has held sway with his acolytes and the bulk of the Republican Party.

But now he’s the first president in history to carry the stain of felony conviction. Will it matter in the November election?