Election night in the United States is a bit like a jigsaw puzzle, except that only one piece appears at a time, and you don’t get to look at the picture on the box.
As thousands of counties and towns report vote totals, it can be hard to figure out when the results reported so far will reflect the outcome.
The first report of the night might show a massive lead for one candidate, but why does that lead dwindle in some races and grow in others? Why does a single vote update from a big city sometimes confirm the winner when there’s still a substantial number of votes left to count? What’s the difference between a “mirage” and a real outcome?
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