There’s a lot that can happen Tuesday, the culmination of a long midterm election campaign that will provide the first nationwide measure of the U.S. electorate since Donald Trump was elected president.
One narrative has become dominant: that Democrats are likely to gain control of the House and Republicans hold the Senate, if not expand their majority there. That narrative is based largely on national polls, and caution should be urged. Pollsters have made a lot of adjustments to hopefully correct what they got wrong in 2016, but they can’t tell you precisely who is going to show up to vote.
What’s more, there have been far fewer statewide and district-specific surveys than in past midterm elections. And, as it is, there are data both parties can take solace in that buoy their respective cases. So everyone should be prepared for surprises — because there always are some. That’s the beauty of campaigns and voting.
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