Scientists estimate that somewhere between 70% and 85% of people need to be immune from the coronavirus before the disease will wane through a process known as herd immunity. Both natural immunity and vaccines can play a role in achieving that goal. But getting there won’t be easy.
“The idea of herd immunity is that after enough people have been infected or vaccinated the virus will start to subside on its own because there’s just not enough susceptible people left to infect,” says Lauren Ancel Meyers, a University of Texas professor who directs its COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. Herd immunity is not a magic moment after which the virus simply vanishes. But it does mark the point at which cases gradually diminish.
“There are a lot of complexities with this pandemic that make herd immunity a little bit more of a complicated — and possibly an elusive — concept,” she says.
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